The great gamble: Israel's 'pre-emptive' strike on Iran

Israel’s "pre-emptive" strike on Iran is one of the greatest foreign policy gambles of modern times.

The audacious attacks by Benjamin Netanyahu are an attempt to stop Iran’s nuclear programme in its tracks - but they also may hasten it.

Iran now has very little to lose by re-doubling its efforts, deep below the mountains of Fordow, to enrich enough uranium to acquire a viable nuclear bomb - the so-called "breakout point".

That would require uranium of 90% purity, and in tunnels half a mile from the surface, Iran has thousands of centrifuges poised to spin into action.

Iran has held off going above 60% enrichment so far and was in the middle of negotiating a new agreement with the United States.

President Trump has repeatedly criticised the old one (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limited enrichment to 3.67%, brokered under the Obama administration, boasting he could get a much better deal. Now that diplomatic track lies in tatters.

What is alarming is not only the way this has shredded international law and sets a dangerous precedent for any future negotiations, but the risk it may also actually propel Iran towards the bomb. It’s also notable that Trump has appeared impotent to stop Israel’s unilateral action.

A new era of impunity appears to be emerging from this chaos, as Netanyahu seeks to neuter Iran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all, with or without the consent of the White House.

The problem for Israel, and the rest of the world, is that while the Iranian nuclear programme may have been set back, destroying it forever may be impossible, without either US involvement, including powerful American B2 bombers or achieving Iranian regime change.

Perhaps, because of that difficult battlefield assessment, Netanyahu is trying both to persuade the US of the case for American involvement, while simultaneously talking about removing theocracy from Iran.

Suddenly, this is an existential war for both sides, and one America may find it difficult to "sit out".

Israel sees Iran’s progress towards becoming a nuclear power as a direct threat, because Iran has repeatedly talked about wiping it off the map.

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Iran, on the other hand, sees Israel’s attack not just as an attempt to destroy key facilities, but as an effort to overthrow the entire Iranian system of government.

Both are now locked in a deadly struggle, with the possible outcomes likely to reshape the region. If Iran does rush to get the bomb, Saudi Arabia will surely follow.

However, if the Iranian regime is overthrown, why wouldn’t despotic regimes around the world conclude that a nuclear deterrent isn’t just aspirational, it’s now critical?

Sudan, Venezuela, and Turkey might all suddenly rush to do the same.

The dominoes of world politics are falling with alarming speed, and no one yet knows where this will end.

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